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THE PAPER PRESENTS A NEW METHOD OF ESTIMATING A PRESIDENT'S IMPACT ON PUBLIC OPINION. THE METHOD IS BASED UPON ROBERT DAHL'S CLASSIC ANALYSIS (1957) OF POWER RELATIONSHIPS AND THE AUTHOR DEMONSTRATES THE TECHNIQUE WITH SURVEY DATA CONCERNING THE PROPER HANDLING OF THE IRANIAN HOSTAGE ISSUE.

Examines public opinion regarding a proposed affirmative action program based on disadvantage rather than on race or gender, drawing on data from a nationwide 1995 Los Angeles Times telephone survey of 1,099 registered voters. Results indicate that a disadvantage-based affirmative action program attracts no more support than does a traditional one. Those who support disadvantage-based affirmative action want it to be a supplement, not an alternative, to traditional affirmative action programs. Policy implications are discussed. 3 Tables, 1 Figure, 13 References. Adapted from the source document.

To determine how far schools with big-time football programs deviate for football players in admissions standards, & how much these deviations pay off in terms of football success, school-by-school entrance exam scores for football players compiled by USA Today are analyzed. Findings indicate that more selective schools recruit more academically qualified players. However, new scholarship football players have substantially lower entrance scores than all new students at the same school, & the more selective the school, the wider the gap. There appears to be no connection between football players' scores & a team's success in football, but there is a negative correlation between a school's success on the football field & the proximity of football players' vs all students' SAT scores. This finding suggests that a school's academic quality, specifically, its ability to surround its football recruits with students who will be their intellectual superiors rather than their peers, constitutes a decisive recruiting advantage. 1 Table, 22 References. Adapted from the source document.

Data from a nationwide opinion survey are used to test the proposition that President Reagan's sponsorship of the INF treaty effectively disarmed the opposition that hard-liners would normally have registered against the treaty. Sheds new light on the extent to which and the conditions under which Americans are willing to set aside their own policy predilections. (Abstract amended)

POSTELECTION SURVEYS CONSISTENTLY OVERESTIMATE VOTER TURNOUT BY A SUBSTANTIAL MARGIN. THIS PAPER COMPARES, VIA DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS OF DATA FROM THE 1978 NATIONAL ELECTION STUDY, THE CHARACTERISTICS OF RESPONDENTS WHO FALSELY CLAIM TO HAVE VOTED WITH THE CHARACTERISTICS OF ACTUAL VOTERS AND ADMITTED NONVOTERS.

Drawing on a survey of residents of the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area, the authors compare African-Americans and whites in terms of their perceptions of the special advantages of the central city and the suburbs as places to live and their overall preferences for the one or the other. Although a broad transracial consensus prevails in most respects about the pluses and minuses of living in the city or the suburbs, some substantial differences also emerge. Moreover, African-Americans and whites seem to weigh these factors differently in forming general preferences about where to live. This pattern of similarities and differences holds out intriguing implications for the development of metropolitan areas.

Considerable public resistance to gender equality remains in domains that are physically demanding & carry substantial risk of bodily harm -- a description that fits competitive athletics. Analysis of data from national opinion surveys indicates, however, that since the mid-1970s, most Americans have favored not only gender-equal access to participation in interscholastic & intercollegiate sports, but also gender-equal funding of athletics programs (a far more radical approach than policymakers or activists have seriously considered). Unlike studies of the determinants of support for other aspects of gender equality, levels of education registered no significant impact on these attitudes; what did matter were gender & age, with women & younger people being more supportive. Adapted from the source document.

Objective. We probe the impact of voter contact by religious groups -- in the form of direct attempts to encourage voters to vote in a certain way & the placement of voter guides in churches -- on voter turnout among white evangelical Protestants, white mainline Protestants, white Roman Catholics, & black Protestants. Methods. Using data from the 1994, 1996, & 1998 National Election Studies, we fit a series of logistic regression models of voter turnout that feature, as key predictors, variables indicating whether an individual was contacted by "any groups concerned with moral or religious issues that tried to encourage you to vote in a particular way" & whether "information about candidates, parties, or political issues [was] made available in your place of worship before the election." Results. These forms of contact were most commonly experienced by white evangelicals & black Protestants, & in many instances, such contacts accomplished their intended purpose. Conclusions. Interest group contacts -- at least contacts from the types of groups examined here -- have the potential to be more effective than contacts by political parties, perhaps because their messages can be more narrowly targeted. 3 Tables, 21 References. Adapted from the source document.

Most research on assimilation of the large & growing Latino population in the US focuses on educational & economic advances. Examined here are the frequency, antecedents, & consequences of social contact between Latinos & Anglos, based on data from the 1989/90 National Latino Political Survey of 1,546 Mexican, 589 Puerto Rican, & 682 Cuban Americans. Social contact between Latinos & Anglos appears to be considerably more frequent than that between African Americans & whites. In all three Latino groups, more or less the same factors encourage such contact. However, there is no consistent or substantial relationship between contact with Anglos & affect for them. The relatively high frequency of Latino-Anglo social contact is not especially surprising, nor is the finding that higher levels of contact are related to other measures of assimilation. More extensive research will be needed, however, to unravel the consequences of such contact. 3 Tables, 34 References. Adapted from the source document.